客运交通量预测模型构建与分析  

The Forecasting Model Foundation and Analysis of Passenger Transport Quantity

作　　者：张爱霞[1] 张云鹏[1] 王健[1] 衣丽芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北理工大学交通与测绘学院,河北唐山063009

出　　处：《河北理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第4期138-142,146,共6页Journal of Hebei Polytechnic University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：客运量预测是在客运市场调查的基础上以及历年的客运统计数据为依据,采用科学的方法和手段,对未来一定时期内客运量的需求的变化趋势以及与之相关的各种因素的变化的影响进行分析、测算并做出预见和判断。通过对公交票价和市区人口数以及市区自行车保有量数据进行分析,利用多元线性回归方法建立了城市客运量的预测模型。其次又运用二次指数平滑法对某市下一年的客运量做出了科学的预测,同时建立客运量预测模型。并对两种预测模型的精度进行了比较,将两种预测模型下的拟合值与实际值进行了对比,进一步检验了模型的应用。Passenger transport quantity forecasting is a passenger market survey on the basis of the past years statistical data.Using scientific methods and means,certain period of time for the future of passenger demand and the trend of changes associated with the various factors in the impact analysis,Calculations and make predictable and judgment.Based on pay fares,and the urban population,and the urban bicycle use in data analysis,Firstly this paper established multiple linear programming of Tangshan passenger traffic forecasting model.Secondly,this paper also used quadratic exponential smoothing method for the next year of Tangshan City.At Last,two prediction accuracy of the model were compared,contrast the forecasting model fitting values and the actual values.Thereby further test the application of the model.

关 键 词：客运量 预测模型 多元线性回归 二次指数平滑法 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]