基于Divisia指数分解法的电能消费碳排放情景分析  

Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions for Power Consumption Based on Divisia Index Decomposition Method

作　　者：祖国海 马向春[2] 杨玲玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古交通职业技术学院,内蒙古赤峰024000 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第11期166-168,共3页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：基于产业链角度分析了电能消费碳排放关键影响因素,采用Divisia指数分解法研究了1990~2007年间我国燃料结构、发电结构、辅助服务及输配损失对碳排放的影响,并给出三类情景下2010~2030年间电力部门的碳排放总量及电能消费的碳排放系数预测。结果表明,我国电力部门2030年的CO2排放总量为49×108~60×108t,相应的电能消费碳排放系数为0.407~0.493,为电力工业未来减排目标及减排途径的设计提供了参考。Key factors affecting the carbon emissions from power consumption are analyzed from the perspective of industry chain.Then,the impacts of fuel mix,power structure,ancillary services,transmission and distribution losses on carbon emissions between 1990 and 2007 years in China are studied by Divisia index decomposition method.Eventually,carbon emissions and coefficient from 2010 to 2030 years are predicted under three scenarios.The results show that the carbon emissions from power sector will be 4.9 billion tons to 6.0 billion tons and the corresponding coefficient will be 0.407 to 0.493 in 2030 year,which provides reference for design of emission reduction goal and approach of power industry in future.

关 键 词：碳排放 排放系数 电能消费 情景分析 

分 类 号：TK011[动力工程及工程热物理]