灰色数学在大坝安全分析中的应用  

Gray mathematics in dam-safety analysis

作　　者：陈远大[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川二滩国际工程咨询有限责任公司,成都610000

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2010年第5期22-25,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：大坝安全是一个十分重要和突出的问题。在大坝可靠度设计计算和安全监测过程中,大多为小样本离散数据序列。灰色数学在分析处理小样本离散数据序列方面具有独特优势。该文对灰色数学模型理论进行了介绍,并利用灰色数学模型对工程案例进行了计算。结果表明:在大坝可靠度设计计算过程中,采用灰色数学模型对设计原始资料进行预测,可以达到补充完善的作用;在大坝安全监测资料的基础上,通过灰色预测,分析其结构可靠度的变化趋势,及时发现安全隐患,制定和采取一定的安全措施,这对确保大坝安全运行具有十分重要的意义。The safety of dam is a very important problem.There are a great deal of small samples in the calculation of dam reliability and safety monitoring.Gray mathematics model is superior to deal with the discrete data series of small samples.The theory of grey mathematics is introduced and is applied in the analysis of dam safety.The result shows that by the grey forecast in grey mathematics,the raw data series can be prolonged,the security measures can be taken properly owing to the safety problems can be discovered timely through analysis of trends of dam reliability.These are great significant to the dam safety.

关 键 词：大坝安全 可靠度 安全监测 灰色数学模型 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]