井灌区降水量的特征分析及灰色预测  

Analysis and Gray Prediction of Rainfall in Well Irrigation Area

作　　者：王健[1,2] 孙明[3] 薛明霞[3] 李洪建[2] 王学萌[4] 

机构地区：[1]山西大学环境与资源学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西大学黄土高原研究所,山西太原030006 [3]山西省水文水资源勘测局太谷均衡实验站,山西太谷030800 [4]山西省农业科学院农业资源综合考察研究所,山西太原030006

出　　处：《山西农业科学》2010年第11期51-56,共6页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：根据太原盆地井灌区54年(1954—2007)降水量的数据,利用滑动平均法进行趋势分析,利用滑动t检验法计算统计量t,进行突变分析。结果表明,太原盆地井灌区近54年降水量为递减趋势;1985年的统计量t达到极大值,且超过了信度α=0.001的显著性水平,表明近54年来太原盆地井灌区年降水量在1985年前后存在明显的突变现象。此外,1954—2007年各月降水量的统计结果表明,太原盆地井灌区降水年内分配极不均匀,71.23%集中在6—9月份,1.49%集中在12,1,2月份,多年各月降水量均有较大变动,其中12月份CV=1.4,1月份CV=1.09,2月份CV=1.08,均属于强变异性。最后利用灰色系统GM(1,1)的分解模型、降水量的长期趋势量x(0)(t)、周期波动量E(t)i以及随机变化量R(t)对井灌区降水量进行预测,经过检验模型精度有明显的提高,预测数据可以作为预测井灌区地下水可开采量的基础数据,并且可以为井灌区水资源开发利用和保护提供科学依据。The variation pattern of precipitaion over Taiyuan Basin well irrigation area was analyzed on basis of annual precipitaion series （ 1957-2007 ）, using moving average method for trend test and moving t test method for abrupt test. The result showed ： （ 1 ）the annual precipitation series demonstrated a significant decrease trend over the study area; （2）An abrupt change was found in 1985, with the statistics t value being maximun at a significant level of 0.001. In addition, from 1954 to 2007, the monthly precipitation of statistical results showed a very uneven distribution of rainfall during the years, 71.23% of precipitation concentrated in months June to September, 1.49% concentrated in December, January and February; monthly precipitation fluctuate strongly, in December CV was 1.4, in January 1.09, and in February CV wasl.08, which all suggested strong variability. Finally, the gray system GM （ 1, 1 ）of the decomposition model： long-tern1 trend of precipitation amount, periodic fluctuation of E （ti）, and random variation of R （t）were used to forecast precipitation in the irrigation area. The accuracy was improved using proven model, the forecast data could be the basic data to predict the groundwater volume in the irrigation area and provide a scientific basis for the development and protection of water resources.

关 键 词：井灌区 灰色系统 降水量特征 

分 类 号：S161.6[农业科学—农业气象学]