近60年来厄尔尼诺事件对广东省旱灾的影响  

The influence of the drought disaster caused by El Nino events in Guangdong Province in recent 60 years

作　　者：唐晓春[1] 袁中友[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院资源与环境学院,广州510320 [2]华南农业大学公共管理学院,广州510642

出　　处：《地理研究》2010年第11期1932-1939,共8页Geographical Research

基　　金：广东省教育厅"千百十工程"优秀人才培养基金项目;国家自然科学基金项目(49971010)

摘　　要：厄尔尼诺是影响全球的大尺度气候现象,对广东省的气候也有影响。在对厄尔尼诺事件进行系统分类研究的基础上,利用X2检验和条件概率检验的方法,对近60年来厄尔尼诺事件与广东省旱灾的关系进行研究,结果表明:广东省的旱灾和厄尔尼诺关系较为密切,23次旱灾,有17次和厄尔尼诺事件有关。研究还发现厄尔尼诺事件的强度、发生的季节以及持续的时间与广东省旱灾的发生有一定关系:中等及强厄尔尼诺事件往往会导致广东省旱灾的发生;春季和秋季发生的厄尔尼诺事件,广东省不易发生旱灾,而夏季发生的厄尔尼诺事件则广东省易发生旱灾;发生连续性的厄尔尼诺事件时,广东省易发生旱灾。El Nino has a great influence on the global climate and it also influences the climate of Guangdong province.Based on the systematic classification of El Nino disaster,this paper studies the correlation between El Nino and drought disaster in Guangdong Province in recent 60 years by means of X2 inspection and condition probability inspection.Then the paper draws the conclusion that drought disaster of Guangdong Province has a close relationship with El Nino events.Out of 23 drought events,17 times relate with El Nino events.In addition,the paper examines the influence on the drought disaster in Guangdong Province caused by different kinds of El Nino disasters.The result indicated that there is a certain relationship between the intensity,season and duration of El Nino occurrence and the droughts in Guangdong.Generally medium and strong El Nino events lead to drought in Guangdong Province.The El Nino events in spring and autumn are not prone to drought while those in summer are prone to.Successive El Nino events often lead to occurrence of drought in this region.

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺 旱灾 相关分析 广东省 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]