宁夏平原绿洲气候变化的区域特征及其突变分析  

Regional characteristics of climatic change trend and abrupt change in Ningxia plain oasis

作　　者：霍华丽[1] 刘普幸[1] 马亚兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2010年第12期111-116,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划基金项目(0803RJZA094);甘肃省教育厅导师项目(0801-11);甘肃省级重点学科自然地理学共同资助

摘　　要：利用宁夏平原绿洲中宁、银川、陶乐三个站点1960～2005a的气温和降水资料,对宁夏平原绿洲气温和降水的年际、年代际和四季的气候变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:近46a来,宁夏平原绿洲年平均气温呈上升趋势,且冬季升温幅度最大,夏季升温幅度最小。年平均降水量总体呈减少趋势,减少幅度:中宁>银川>陶乐,但冬季降水有微弱增加,其它季节减少,秋季减少幅度最大。通过Mann-Kendall突变分析表明:气温突变明显,年平均气温在1984a发生升温突变。年平均降水突变则比较复杂,年降水量在1965、1979、1981a发生减少突变,而2001a突变增多。在全球气候变暖背景下,宁夏平原绿洲的气候呈变干趋势。The climate change characteristics of annual,decade,seasonal temperature and precipitation in Ningxia plain oasis were analyzed based on the observed data of temperature and precipitation in Ningxia Plain Oasis in recent 46 years.Analysis of the annual,seasonal climate change trend of the temperature and precipitation in Ningxia Plain Oasis were carried out using the methods of climatic trend rate,5-year moving average and Mann-Kendall statistictal.The mainly results showed：The climate has been becoming warmer since the 1980s in Ningxia Plain Oasis.The rising extent of the temperature in winter is the maximum,and the summer is the minimum.The trend of precipitation in Ningxia Plain Oasis is reducing,the extent of reduce is ZhongningYinchuanTaole.The trend of precipitation is increasing in winter,and it is reducing in other seasons.The results of Mann-Kendall statistic revealed that the abrupt change of temperature rise happened in 1984,and the abrupt change of precipitation reduce happened in 1965、1979、1981.In 2001 the precipitation was raised abruptly.In the background of global climate warming,the climate tends to be drier in Ningxia Plain Oasis.

关 键 词：年代际变化 年际变化 气候突变 宁夏平原绿洲 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]