气候变化对新疆自然植被净第一性生产力的影响  

Effect of Climate Change on NPP of Natural Vegetation in Xinjiang

作　　者：张山清[1] 普宗朝[1] 伏晓慧[1] 丁林[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830001 [2]新疆气象信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2010年第6期905-914,共10页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：新疆气象局科研项目(200708)资助

摘　　要：利用新疆101个气象台站1961-2008年的逐月气温和降水量资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检测、Morlet小波、相关分析和Kriging插值技术等方法,分析了新疆近48年平均气温、降水量时空变化特征及其对NPP(自然植被净第一性生产力)的影响,并对未来不同的气候变化情景下,新疆NPP对气候变化的可能响应进行预估。结果表明:①近48年,新疆气候总体呈较明显的"暖湿化"趋势,并且年平均气温和年降水量分别于1972年和1978年发生了突变性的上升。但气候变化具有区域性差异,表现为北疆气温上升倾向率普遍大于南疆和天山山区;北疆大部和天山山区年降水量增多倾向率普遍高于南疆。新疆年平均气温和降水量还存在准4,9,11,16年和23年等不同时间尺度的振荡周期。②受气温、降水时空变化的综合影响,新疆的NPP在空间上表现为,天山山区>北疆>南疆的分布格局;在时间上,近48年新疆NPP平均以0.118t/(hm2·10a)的倾向率增长,并于1978年以来发生了突变性的增大。新疆NPP也存在3～4,6～8,11年和16年的振荡周期。③未来气候变湿将对新疆NPP产生积极影响,但气候变暖对NPP将产生不利影响,平均而言,在其他条件不变的前提下,年降水量每增多10%,NPP将增加20%,年平均气温每升高1℃,NPP将减少4%～6%。但全疆各地NPP对气候变化的响应具有明显的区域性差异。Based on the temperature and precipitation data observed by 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during the period of 1961-2008,the NPP values are calculated using Zhou Guangsheng and Zhang Xinshi model,and the spatiotemporal variation of temperature,precipitation,NPP and their relations are analyzed using linear regression,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall abrupt test,correlation analysis and Kriging spatial interpolation method. The response of NPP to the change of annual temperature and precipitation in the future is discussed. The main results are as follows：（ 1） The spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation was quite different from different regions of Xinjiang,as a whole,the temperature in south Xinjiang was higher than that in north Xinjiang,higher in the basins （ valleys） than that in the mountainous areas. Precipitation in the mountainous areas was higher than that in the basins （ valleys） ,higher in the western and northern parts of Xinjiang than that in the eastern and southern parts; （ 2） Climate became warmer and wetter in recent 48 years in Xinjiang,and the annual mean temperature,precipitation had the discontinuity ascension in 1972 and 1978,but the change rate is different in every areas,in general,the climate warming rate was large in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang and mountain area,precipitation increasing rate was large in northern Xinjiang and mountain area than in southern Xinjiang. The annual mean temperature and precipitation has had quasi -4 a,9 a,11 a,16 a and 23 a cyclical changes; （ 3） By the comprehensive affected of temperature and precipitation,the NPP is large in Tianshan mountain area than in northern and southern Xinjiang,and the NPP is increasing by the rate of 0. 118 t/（ hm2·10 a） in recent 48 and there was mutability increase in 1978,and it exist 3 -4 a,6 -8 a,11 a and 16 a cyclical changes; （ 4） The result of pre-diction demonstrates that the wetting climate change will improve the natural vegetation NPP in Xinjiang

关 键 词：自然植被净第一性生产力(NPP) 气温 降水 气候变化 新疆 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]