宿迁市耕地需求量预测及探析  

Prediction and Analysis on the Total Quantity of Suqian Arable Land

作　　者：岳秋丽[1] 白明哲[2] 

机构地区：[1]宿迁学院五系,江苏宿迁223800 [2]中国矿业大学,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第30期17046-17048,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：宿迁学院科研基金项目(2008KY22)

摘　　要：选取宿迁市1997～2007年耕地变更调查统计数据,分别采用趋势预测法、线性回归法和灰色数列模型对该市耕地总量变化态势进行建模,并利用模型进行未来耕地需求量预测,最后根据预测结果对3种预测方法进行分析讨论。With the statistical data of Suqian arable land during1997 - 2007 being selected, the trend prediction method, the linear regression method and the grey sequence method is used to carried on respectively modeling to the change of total quantity of the arable land of the Suqian city, by which predicted value of the total quantity of the arable land of the city during 2008 - 2012 is obtained. The discussions on all the three kinds of prediction methods can be contributable to the land use plan of Suqian city to some extent.

关 键 词：宿迁市 耕地 预测方法 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]