基于属性综合评价模型的水库溃坝后果评价  

Dam-break Impact Severity Degree Assessment Based on the Attribute Theory

作　　者：程翠云[1] 钱新[1] 盛金保[2] 

机构地区：[1]污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室南京大学环境学院,南京210093 [2]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2010年第11期101-103,110,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金："十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2009BAK56B04)

摘　　要：水库溃坝后果包括溃坝导致的生命损失、经济损失和社会与环境影响3个方面,通过确定溃坝后果严重程度评价指标体系和评价标准,提出了基于属性理论的溃坝后果严重程度的评价模型及评价方法。以贵州省的花溪水库为例,运用该模型和方法对花溪水库溃坝后果严重程度进行了评价。结果表明:花溪水库溃坝的生命损失、经济损失和社会与环境影响损失均极其严重,溃坝后果综合严重程度属于极其严重类。In order to manage the dam effectively and analyze dam risks,it is necessary to implement an integrated assessment of dam-break impact severity degree.In this paper,the index system of dam-break impact severity degree and criteria for evaluation are established,and an assessment model based on the attribute theory is established.The study of applying this model in the Huaxi Reservoir in Guizhou Province show that the dam-break impact severity degree belong to most severity,which is consistent with the results based on the other methods.Thus the attribute assessment model is feasible for assessing the dam-break impact severity degree.Some regulation measures to reduce dam-break impact of Huaxi are put forward finally.

关 键 词：属性 水库溃坝 严重程度 

分 类 号：TV698.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]