灰色经济计量学模型在交通量预测中的应用  

Application of a gray econometric model in traffic volume prediction

作　　者：徐冲[1] 孙晓燕[1] 王海龙[1] 朱劲松[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《公路工程》2010年第5期34-38,共5页Highway Engineering

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(2007AA04Z437);国家自然科学基金项目(50808158;50708065);浙江省自然科学基金项目(Y107049);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20080351117)

摘　　要：交通量受到社会、经济、自然等多种因素的影响,作用机理繁复不明,且各地区交通调查资料不全给准确建模分析带来技术困难。鉴于灰色理论能分析缺少调查数据情况下复杂因素之间的相关性,线性回归模型可以较为明晰地对事物变化内在规律进行分析,本文尝试性地将农业领域的灰色经济计量学模型应用于交通量预测领域,基于河北省国道交通网年平均日交通量数据和社会经济统计资料建立交通量预测灰色经济计量学模型。研究表明,与其他预测模型相比,该模型具有更高的预测精度和理论合理性,并通过2007年实测数据验证了该模型的预测合理性和工程适用性。Traffic volume is affected by social,economical and environmental factors.However,the mechanism is too complex to be well investigated.Furthermore,the lack of on-site traffic survey brought difficulty in traffic volume prediction.Considering the advantages of grey theory on correlated factors analysis,and the benefits of linear regression model on the development law investigation,a gray econometric model,which combine the grey theory with linear regression,has been proposed to predict the traffic volume in this paper.Such method has been applied in agriculture area for the grain yield prediction.The gray econometric model is established based on statistic data related to development of society,economy and annual average daily traffic volume of the national highway network of Hebei Province.Comparing with other traffic volume prediction models,this model affords higher prediction accuracy and better rationality.As the prediction value of 2007 according to this model agrees very well with the measured value of the highway net work,the applicability and reliability of this model is verified.

关 键 词：交通量预测 灰色经济计量学模型 线性回归 国道交通网 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]