人民币升值下的反J曲线效应研究——基于中美双边贸易的分析  

Research on Reverse J Curve Effect under RMB Appreciation-An Analysis based on Sino-US Trade

作　　者：黄晓红[1] 唐鹏蛟[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210002

出　　处：《上海金融》2010年第11期12-20,共9页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：本文基于国际金融学中经典的J曲线理论,从理论上推导"反J曲线效应"的存在,通过2005年8月至2009年12月的月度数据建立进口和出口需求函数,运用分布滞后模型、JJ协整分析和脉冲相应函数分别探讨了人民币升值对中美进出口贸易的影响。结论表明,汇改后人民币升值带来的反J曲线效应尚处于第一阶段,绝对额仍在上升,但增长率已明显放缓。最后结合当前金融危机就人民币升值后的贸易调整提出合理的政策建议。This article deduces reverse J curve effect from classical J curve theory, and establishes China＇s ex- port and import demand function based on the monthly data during August, 2005 to December, 2009. It then applies distribution lag model, JJ co-integration analysis, and impulse response function to examine the effect of RMB appre- ciation on Sino-US trade. The result indicates that currently, reverse J curve effect caused by RMB appreciation is only at the first stage. The amount of export is still rising while the growth rate has slowed down. Finally, several pol- icy suggestions are proposed regarding China＇s trade adjustment under global financial crisis.

关 键 词：反J曲线效应 ML条件 协整分析 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]