淮河堤防土体抗剪强度指标概率模型与参数优化估计  

The probability model of shear strength and parameters optimizing estimation of Huai River dike

作　　者：何秉顺[1] 马东亮[2] 王庆苗[2] 杨业荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪减灾研究所,北京100038 [2]中水淮河规划设计研究有限公司,安徽蚌埠233001

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》2010年第3期195-200,共6页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC05B05)

摘　　要：进行堤防风险评价和可靠性分析,首先需要确定堤身与堤基土体抗剪强度指标概率的类型与统计参数。针对小区域测试段样本数量少、离散性大的情况,引入历史大范围的勘察钻探资料,利用统计数学上的A-D检验方法对土体抗剪强度指标进行了分布假设检验,发现堤身、堤基土抗剪强度指标可接受正态分布或对数正态分布。将上述结果作为先验信息,与小样本测试结果相结合,使用Bayes理论,实现了具体堤防段抗剪强度指标概率分布参数的优化估计,降低了参数的变异强度,为堤防风险分析提供了可靠数据。In dike risk evaluation and reliability analysis,it is important to determine the soil shear strength probability distribution and statistic index.There are few numbers and dispersed samples in the test site,so the historical and large scale of survey information had been introduced,and the A-D test method had been adopted to check the distribution.The probability distributions of the soil in the dike body and dike foundation are coincident with the the oretical normal distribution or logarithmic normal distribution.By combining the sample information from the field tests and the prior information of the analysis,the Bayes theory is used to optimize the distribution index of shear strength of a certain dike.The scale of randomness is reduced and the reliable data is provided for the risk evaluation.

关 键 词：堤防 抗剪强度指标 BAYES 

分 类 号：TV223.1[水利工程—水工结构工程]