我国粮食生产波动影响因素分析——基于供给反应模型  

An Analysis on the Factors of the Fluctuations in Grain Production Based on Supply Response Model

作　　者：李光泗[1] 李全根[1] 曹宝明[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食经济研究院,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2010年第5期31-37,共7页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目"粮食宏观调控应急信息技术与应用示范"(项目批准号:2008BADA8B01-3);国家软科学计划项目"促进我国粮食流通产业现代化的技术政策研究"(项目批准号:2009GXS5B092);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目(项目编号:08SJD7900064);南京财经大学2008年度重点招标项目(项目编号:LGS301001)支持

摘　　要：实现粮食稳定增长一直是我国粮食政策的核心目标,对于保障国家粮食安全具有十分重要的战略意义。近年来,随着国内外粮食市场变化,粮食生产波动引起广泛关注。粮食生产波动受到众多因素影响,尤其是农户供给行为、自然条件、技术进步、农业政策等等。从农户生产行为来说,农户粮食供给行为是一个动态调整过程,当外部生产环境发生变化时,农户必将对粮食价格、政策调整等外部冲击做出反应。为此,本文利用粮食供给反应模型研究我国粮食生产波动主要影响因素,探讨减少粮食生产波动、提高粮食生产稳定增长的建议。The steady growth in food grain has been the core of the policy objectives,which is very important for the protection of national food security.Recently,with changes in domestic and international food markets,the fluctuation in food production has caused widespread concern.For the farmer,the food supply behavior is a dynamic adjustment process,when the external production changes,the farmer then adjustments to respond to external shocks.Therefore,this paper analyzed the main factors of reduced fluctuation of grain production based on the model of food supply response fluctuations,which is helpful for increasing the steady of food production.

关 键 词：粮食生产 波动 供给反应模型 

分 类 号：F304.3[经济管理—产业经济]