灰色新陈代谢模型在农民收入和消费预测中的应用  

Application of Grey Metabolic Model in the Prediction of the Revenue and Consumption of the Rural Residents

作　　者：沈菊红[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方民族大学信息与计算科学学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第29期16083-16085,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ1056);北方民族大学科学研究基金资助项目(2009Y032)

摘　　要：运用灰色系统理论和方法,建立了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)宁夏农村居民人均纯收入和人均生活消费模型。在MATLAB环境下对该模型的精度以及误差进行了分析,并利用该模型对宁夏农村人均纯收入和人均生活消费进行预测。预测结果表明,灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型能够明显地提高预测精度,增加预测的可靠性。A gray Metabolic GM（1,1）model of per capita net income and life consumption of the rural residents in Ningxia was established in which applied the grey system theory and method.The precision and error of the model were analyzed in the MATLAB environment,and the model was applied to predict the per capita net income and life consumption of farmers in Ningxia.The predication result showed that the grey Metabolic GM（1,1）model could obviously improve the precision of forecasting and increase the reliability of prediction.

关 键 词：灰色系统 新陈代谢GM(1 1)模型 收入 生活消费 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]