山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测  

A forward prediction of moderate-sized or strong earthquakes in Shandong, Hebei, Henan,Shaxi,Haicheng in Liaoning province and Beijing-Tianjin regions

作　　者：秦四清[1] 薛雷[1] 黄鑫[1] 徐锡伟[2] 王媛媛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2010年第5期1539-1549,共11页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-113 ;KZCX2-YW-Q03-02113)联合资助

摘　　要：运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与有关方法,对山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区各地震区未来的地震趋势进行了分析,给出了未来有中强地震发生的地震区地震震级、地点、临界应变(对应发震时间)、震源深度四要素在内的预测结果.研究表明:导致海城M_s7.3级地震发生的最直接原因是发生在1944年的丹东M_s6.75级地震事件,该6.75级地震是引发海城大地震的直接导火索.The earthquake trend for Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shaxi, Haicheng and Beijing-Tianjin regions, China, is analyzed in detail using the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system. For the seismic zone where a moderate or strong earthquakes will occur, the prediction results including the magnitude, place, critical strain （corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake）, and the hypocentral depth of an oncoming earthquake are provided. It is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Ms7.3 Haicheng earthquake is attributed to the earthquake event with a magnitude of Ms6.75 occurred in Dandong in 1944.

关 键 词：地震区 锁固段 预测方法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]