多阶段多目标多部门应急决策模型  

Emergency decision model with multiple stages,multiple objectives,and multidivisional cooperation

作　　者：陈兴[1,2] 王勇[1] 吴凌云[1] 闫桂英[1] 朱伟[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100190 [3]北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京100189

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2010年第11期1977-1985,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：北京市科技计划项目(Z09050600910902)

摘　　要：在考虑部门协同、动态决策的基础上,提出了部门协同网络、协同矩阵、协同系数等新的概念.基于多目标优化的思想,建立了多阶段多目标多部门的应急协同决策模型.该模型能够结合多部门意见,并随着事态的发展对决策进行动态调整.模拟实验表明该模型可以实现科学决策,对于实际的应急决策问题具有重要的意义.The need to solve the emergency decision problems has been urgent nowadays due to its importance to help government in promoting social development and maintaining social stability.Several novel concepts,including department cooperative network,cooperative matrix,and cooperative coefficient, are proposed by considering the demands from multi-divisional cooperation and dynamic decision.Then an emergency decision model with multiple stages,multiple objectives,and multidivisional cooperation has been developed in the framework of multi-objective optimization.The main advantage of this model is that it can integrate the suggestions from different departments and can adjust decision dynamically according to the real-time situation.Further simulation experiments demonstrate that the model has great significance for the practical emergency decision problems and can accomplish scientific decision.

关 键 词：应急决策 协同决策 多目标决策 动态决策 

分 类 号：O22[理学—运筹学与控制论]