基于经济曲线饱和态势分析的饱和负荷宏观预测研究  

Research on Saturated Load Macroscopically Forecast Based on Saturated Situation Analysis of Economy Curve

作　　者：王芳东[1,2] 林韩[3] 李传栋[4] 温步瀛[2] 

机构地区：[1]福建省电力有限公司技术中心,福州350007 [2]福州大学电气工程与自动化学院,福建闽侯350108 [3]福建省电力有限公司,福州350003 [4]福建省电力试验研究院,福州350007

出　　处：《华东电力》2010年第10期1485-1490,共6页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家电网公司项目(NC2010049)~~

摘　　要：饱和负荷预测对城市电网的规划具有重要的意义,电力电量的发展与经济的发展水平息息相关,因此,不同的经济饱和态势将决定不同的饱和负荷规模。以福建省福州市为研究对象,运用系统动力学原理及其建模工具VENSIM软件,采用改进的新古典经济增长理论对福州市经济曲线饱和态势进行建模和预测,在此基础上,分别运用人均用电饱和水平法、考虑政策等因素的电力负荷系统动力学预测模型、建立电力负荷与经济、人口的计量经济学误差修正预测模型三种方法分别对福州市饱和负荷的总体水平进行预测。It is of great significance to forecast the the load saturation for the urban grid planning.Electric power development is closely related to the level of economic development.Therefore,Different economic saturated situation would determine the different size of saturated load.By taking the Fuzhou city in Fujian province as the research object,the system dynamics principles and the VENSIM tool for modeling were applied to model and forcast the saturated situation of Fuzhou city＇s economic curve based on the Improved neoclassical economic growth theory.On this basis,three methods were used to forcast the overall level of saturated power load of Fuzhou city,and such three months were respectively established on the basis of the electricity consumption per capita method,the power load system dynamics mode method considering the policy and other factors,the econometric error correction prediction models method between electricity load,economic and population.

关 键 词：经济曲线 饱和负荷预测 系统动力学 计量经济学 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]