气候变化对衢州水文站洪水频率分析的影响  

Impact of climate change on flood frequency analysis at Quzhou hydrological station

作　　者：徐晓[1] 林盛吉[1] 张徐杰[1] 张庆庆[1] 许月萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第6期625-628,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50809058);教育部博士点基金(200803351029)

摘　　要：以衢州水文站为研究对象,针对衢州水文站的年最大值序列,选择广义极值分布作为该站洪水频率分析的分布函数,使用30a滑动平均法对线性矩估计所得分布函数参数的变化趋势进行分析,通过研究气候变化对衢州水文站洪水频率分析统计参数的影响来研究水文流量序列对气候变化的敏感程度.研究结果表明,气候变化对频率分析分布曲线的参数有较大影响,从而影响最终设计洪水的数值.With regard to the annual maximum series at Quzhou hydrological station,the generalized extreme value distribution was chosen as the distribution function for its flood frequency analysis.The variation trend of parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution estimated by the L-moments method was analyzed by use of the 30-year moving average method.Through studies on the impact of the climate change on the statistical parameters of flood frequency analysis at Quzhou hydrological station,the sensitivity of hydrological discharge sequences to the climate change was investigated.The results indicate that the climate change has great impact on parameters of distribution curves in the frequency analysis and further on the final design floods.

关 键 词：气候变化 洪水频率分析 线性矩 衢州水文站 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P339[天文地球—水文科学]