考虑时变效应的土石坝安全风险综合评价模型  

Safety risk comprehensive evaluation model of earth-rock dams considering time-varying effect

作　　者：李益[1,2] 蔡新[1,2,3] 徐锦才[4] 李洪煊[3,5] 戴双喜[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学力学与材料学院,江苏南京210098 [3]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [4]水利部农村电气化研究所,浙江杭州310012 [5]南京市市政设计研究院,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第6期655-659,共5页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(200801019);河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项基金(2009586012)

摘　　要：针对土石坝整体安全风险和时变效应问题,以调查资料为基础,分析了土石坝整体安全的主要影响因素.综合运用层次分析法、可靠度计算法和专家评判法,以洪水漫顶、滑坡失稳、渗透变形以及工程管理为基本要素,构建土石坝安全风险评价指标体系.考虑洪水漫顶、滑坡失稳、渗透变形的时变效应,研究了基于时变效应理论的多层次土石坝安全风险综合评价模型.工程实例分析表明,该模型是可行和有效的,可为土石坝除险加固、水电站安全运行提供参考.For the safety risk and time-varying effect of earth-rock dams,the main factors for earth-rock dams were analyzed based on the survey data.The analytical hierarchy process （AHP）,reliability calculation method and expert judgment method were employed.An evaluation index system for earth-rock dam safety assessment was established.It included the basic elements of dam overtopping,slope failure,seepage deformation and project management.Considering the time-varying effect of the dam overtopping,slope failure and seepage deformation,the safety risk comprehensive evaluation model for earth-rock dams was investigated.The results of engineering cases indicate that the proposed model is feasible and practical,and it can be used for the rehabilitation of earth-rock dams and the safety operation of hydropower stations.

关 键 词：土石坝 风险评价 时变效应 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程]