农村经济发展与化肥使用量的库兹涅茨曲线假说及验证  

The Kuznets Curves' Hypothesis and Validation of the Correlation between Rural Economic Growth and Chemical Fertilizers Consumption

作　　者：巩前文[1] 田志宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第4期157-164,共8页Journal of China Agricultural University;Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"石油价格变动对我国农业的影响研究"(编号:70873126);"中国农业大学基本科研业务费研究生科研创新专项资助"的资助

摘　　要：文章主要研究农村经济发展与化肥使用量之间的关系,提出两者之间的库兹涅茨曲线假说。通过构建农户选择行为模型,从理论上对两者存在库兹涅茨曲线关系给出微观解释。在此基础上,采用1978—2008年的时间序列数据进行了实证检验,结果表明:农村经济发展与化肥使用量之间存在库兹涅茨曲线关系,转折点发生在农村人均农业总产值为547.67元(1978年不变价)的时点,即与国家统计局统计数据比较,转折点发生在2008年。The paper explores the relationship between rural economic growth and chemical fertilizers consumption, and the Kuznets Cures＇ hypothesis is described in the relation between them. With building the farmers＇ behavior selection model, the paper presents the microcosmic explanation on the Kuznets curves and validated it based on the serial data between 1978 and 2008 in China. The result suggests that there is a Kuznets Cure eurviliner relationship between rural economic growth and chemical fertilizers consumption, with the turning point happens on the specific time point that the average agricultural output is 547.67 yuan （in constant prices of 1978） , comparing with the statistical data, it can be found that 2008 is the turning point.

关 键 词：农村经济发展 化肥使用量 库兹涅次曲线 假说 验证 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济] F426.72F224