迭代法在公安情报分析预测中的应用  

The Application of Interative Method in Public Security Analysis and Forecast

作　　者：武珏臣[1] 李熙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学公安情报学系,北京100038

出　　处：《现代情报》2010年第11期16-18,24,共4页Journal of Modern Information

摘　　要：伴随着混沌理论引入社会学科这一研究方法的兴起,本文尝试利用迭代模型进行公安情报的分析预测,同时对迭代模型应用过程中出现的不动点、分岔问题进行分析并提出合理的解决方案,最后试图提出新型的情报预测模型——迭代模型,在迭代模型的数值由恒定到突变的跳动中找寻其真实的轨迹,并对结果进行误差分析。With the rise of chaos theory been introduced into the study of social science.This paper tried to lead iterative model into public security intelligence analysis and forecast.By means of explain the fixed point and bifurcation phenomenon appeared in the application of the iterative model analysis,put forward the solution of these problem,it attempt to give a new intelligence forecast model-Iterative model.In the constant beating of numerical change find its real path,and carry out error analysis on the result.

关 键 词：预测 迭代模型 混沌理论 规律 

分 类 号：G35[文化科学—情报学]