气候变化和人类活动对老哈河流域径流的影响  

The effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe River Basin in Northern China

作　　者：江善虎[1] 任立良[1] 雍斌[1] 杨肖丽[1] 刘晓帆[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]四川省交通厅交通勘察设计研究院,四川成都610017

出　　处：《水资源保护》2010年第6期1-4,15,共5页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)(2006CB400502);国家青年基金(40901017);河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室学术创新团队项目(2009585412);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2010B13614;2009B11614)

摘　　要：通过趋势及突变检验将径流序列划分为"天然基准期"和"人类活动影响期",依据径流对降水及潜在蒸发的敏感性,定量分析了我国北方老哈河流域气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明:1964年以来,老哈河流域径流呈显著减少趋势,其变化倾向率为-0.47 mm/a;流域径流受气候变化和人类活动双重影响,其中人类活动对径流起减少作用,在20世纪八九十年代及2000—2008年人类活动对径流深的减少量分别为10.9 mm、6.3 mm及17.9 mm;气候变化对径流在80年代和2000—2008年起减少作用,减少量分别为10.0mm和8.5 mm,而90年代气候变化对径流起增加作用,增加量为12.4 mm。The runoff series was divided into a ＂natural period＂ and a ＂human-induced period＂ according to the trend and mutation test. Based on the sensitivity of runoff to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, the effeets of climate variability and human activities on runoff were analyzed quantitatively for the Laohabe River Basin in the northern part of China. The results showed that the runoff in the Laohahe River Basin has had a significant decreasing tendency since 1964, and the tendency rate was-0.47 mm per year. Human activities were the main cause of the runoff reduction. The reductions due to human activities for the periods of 1980-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2008 were 10.9 mm, 6.3 mm, and 17.9 ram, respectively. The reductions due to climate variation for the periods of 1980-1989 and 2000-2008 were 10.0 mm, and 8.5 mm respectively, while the runoff increased 12.4 mm during the period of 1990-1999.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 径流变化 老哈河流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]