人民币汇率变动对就业影响的动态CGE研究  

Dynamic CGE Analysis of the Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Change on Employment

作　　者：胡宗义[1] 刘亦文[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第11期82-86,共5页Journal of Hunan University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：教育部'新世纪优秀人才支持计划'资助项目(NCET-09-0329);教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(08JA790037);国家社会科学基金资助项目(09BJL014);湖南省社会科学规划项目(08YBB315)

摘　　要：通过引入资本累积、金融资本累积以及劳动力市场的调整3种跨期链接将可计算一般均衡模型动态化,研究人民币汇率变动对中国就业的冲击影响.研究结果表明:人民币升值将导致中国劳动力成本提高,使得很多劳动密集型企业丧失产品价格优势,进而使得失业人口增加;人民币升值对不同行业的影响各异,将导致劳动密集型行业和原材料出口型行业的就业形势严重恶化,人民币升值对以原料进口的行业具有正向作用,服务业也从人民币升值中受益,人民币升值对我国第一产业就业影响较为稳定.This paper introduced the three types of cross-links：capital accumulation,financial capital accumulation and labor market adjustments,into the dynamic computable general equilibrium model to analyze the RMB exchange rate movements on China＇s employment.The results have shown that RMB appreciation will lead to the increase of labor costs,thus many labor-intensive enterprises will lose product price advantages and the unemployment will increase.The impacts of RMB appreciation on different industries are different.The employment situation in the labor-intensive industries and export-oriented industries of raw materials will deteriorate,but the impacts on raw materials are positive,and service industries can also benefit from the RMB appreciation,and the impacts of RMB appreciation on China＇s primary industry jobs are more stable.

关 键 词：动态仿真 汇率变动 就业 冲击 动态可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]