我国耕地数量灰色预测分析与耕地保护  

Grey Predication of Cultivated Land Change and Analysis of Farmland Protection in China

作　　者：岳云华[1,2] 冉清红[2] 孙传敏[1] 谢德体[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地球科学学院,四川成都610059 [2]绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,四川绵阳621000 [3]西南大学资源环境学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2010年第6期56-59,共4页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目"西部地区耕地保护的经济补偿机制研究"(10XJY0021);绵阳师范学院科研基金项目"基于行为主体的耕地管理创新研究"(MA2009008)

摘　　要：集成曲线估计模型和灰色数列模型方法,预测2011—2020年的耕地总量。研究表明:2015年耕地面积为11 996.62万hm2,2015—2020年的耕地预测值与耕地红线的差值介于-3.38万～-219.62万hm2;2015—2020年的耕地总量低于耕地红线,政府行为在耕地保护中起关键作用。提出耕地保护措施:国家设立耕地农业发展权和农业发展权转让金制度、建立第三方监督机构,同时赋予农户耕地使用权、发展权和保护权,地方土管部门严把建设占用耕地关、依法管理耕地和用好规划工具等。The purpose of this paper is to analyze the government driven mechanism affecting the reduction of cultivated land and the performance for the cultivated land protected by governments in China. The integrated curve estimation model and the gray series model are employed to study the total cultivated land change process from 1983 to 2006, and predict the change tendency from 2011 to 2020. The result shows that there may be the total cultivated land area of 119. 9662 million hectares in 2015 ,having a differential area of -33 800 to -2 196 200 hectares in China between the total estimated arable land and the Red Line suggested by government from 2015 to 2020. The conclusion is drawn that the total arable land area may be less than the value of Red Line during 2015 and 2020, so the governments play a critical role in the cultivated land protection. Then the authors suggest that the prior development system of national agricultural land use and agricultural development transferred-funds depending on the cultivated land should be established by the government and the measures would be taken to build a third-party monitoring mechanism and give farmers the particular rights of cultivated land use, development and protection. The departments of land management should prevent the arable land from occupying to the building and control strictly the arable land use in accordance with the land management law and protect the cultivated land in light with the land use planning in future.

关 键 词：曲线估计模型 灰色数列模型 行为主体 保护耕地. 

分 类 号：F301.1[经济管理—产业经济]