亚丁湾海域数值预报与Argo观测温度比较研究  

Comparative Study on Results Respactively From Numerical Prediction and Argo Temperature-observation in Aden Gulf

作　　者：尹训强[1,2,3] 乔方利[2,3] 夏长水[2,3] 杨永增[2,3] 王关锁[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋环境学院,山东青岛266003 [2]国家海洋局第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061 [3]海洋环境科学与数值模拟国家海洋局重点实验室,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《海洋科学进展》2010年第4期428-435,共8页Advances in Marine Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目--基于全球实时海洋观测计划(Argo)的上层海洋结构;变异及预测研究第二子课题:北太平洋上层海洋温盐结构的形成与变异(2007CB816002)

摘　　要：亚丁湾海域是印度洋西部一个重要海洋运输通道,其海水性质变化多样,海水运动复杂,对航海等起着重要作用。利用了海浪-环流耦合模式建立的全球大洋环流预报系统2008年的预报结果,结合实时/准实时的Argo观测资料,针对亚丁湾海域进行了模拟与观测的对比研究。对比分析包括:不同季节代表月份的预报结果与Argo剖面的比较、预报结果与全年Argo观测温度误差的统计分析等。比较表明:该预报结果与Argo观测剖面吻合较好,温度预报在整体上具有较小的误差,在100 m以深的海洋下层有75%的温度误差分布在±1℃范围内,而100m以浅的海洋上层的温度误差在该范围占67%。比较结果也显示预报的上层混合作用仍略偏弱,剖面中的逆温现象没有在预报中反映出来等,其机制有待深入研究,可能受分辨率低的限制。这些结果为将来在该海域建立高分辨率的海洋环流预报系统有一定借鉴意义。The Aden Gulf is located in the west of the Indian Ocean,and it is an important region for marine transportation.A variety of the variations of the marine properties with the complicated movements in the water,which have their important effects on marine nevigation,can be found in the Aden Gulf.This comparative study is focused on the Aden Gulf in order to compare the results from the wave-circulation coupling model in the global ocean circulation prediction system with the results from the real time/near real time Argo data observed in 2008.The comparative analyses include the comparison between the results from the prediction and the Argo profiles observed in the typical months respectively for various seasons,and the statistical analysis of the predicted temperature deviation from the Argo observational temperature for one year around in 2008.It is learnt from the comparison that the results from the prediction are better consistent with the Argo observed profiles,with the entire predicted values deviated insignificantly from the Argo measnrements.75% of the deviants are limited within ±1 ℃ in the lower depths below 100 m,and 67% of deviants within ±1 ℃ in the upper depths above the 100 m.Some defficiency in the prediction is that the upper layer mixing becomes weaked,and the temperature inversions are not reflected,and some others.The reasons for the defficiency need further studying.One reason might be that the model has its insufficiently high resolution.The results from this study might be useful in setting up a higher resulution system for ocean circnlation prediction in the future.

关 键 词：全球大洋环流预报系统 亚丁湾海域 ARGO资料 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]