基于恩格尔系数与霍夫曼系数的城市需水量预测  

Prediction of urban water demand based on Engel Index and Hoffmann Coefficient

作　　者：张志果[1] 邵益生[1] 徐宗学[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国城市规划设计研究院,北京100037 [2]北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《水利学报》2010年第11期1304-1309,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：北京市科委博士生论文资助专项(ZZ0932)

摘　　要：北京市生活用水量与恩格尔系数和工业用水量与霍夫曼系数的相关系数分别达到-0.78和0.95。基于这一事实,本文建立了基于恩格尔系数的生活用水量预测模型和基于霍夫曼系数的工业用水量预测模型,并以1998-2007年北京市的用水资料进行参数率定。结果表明,所建立的模型能较好地反映城市生活用水及工业用水的变化,其确定性系数分别为0.68和0.92,说明对工业用水的整体模拟要好于生活用水。对2020年北京市的城市用水预测表明,2020年北京市生活需水量约为14.52亿m3,工业需水量约为3.42亿m3,城市用水量总体呈下降趋势,所建立的模型对于预测长期用水变化具有一定的参考意义。The correlation coefficient between domestic water use and Engel Index in Beijing is-0.78, while that between industrial water use and Hoffmann coefficient is 0.95. The domestic water demand model based on Engel Index and industrial water demand model based on Hoffmann coefficient are developed and the water use data series in Beijing from 1998 to 2007 are used for calibrating the parameters. On this basis the urban water demand in Beijing is predicted. The results show that both models can simulate the trends of urban water demands. The deterministic coefficient of domestic water demand model is 0.68, while that of industrial water demand model is 0.92. The domestic water demand and industrial water demand are predicted to be 1.452 and 0.342 bilkion cubic meters in Beijing in 2020, and the total of which tends to downward.

关 键 词：生活用水 工业用水 恩格尔系数 霍夫曼系数 

分 类 号：TV212.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]