主过热蒸汽管路的贝叶斯网络安全性预测推理  

Security forecast reasoning of the main steam-gas pipelines based on Bayesian networks

作　　者：初珠立[1] 杨自春[1] 王会权 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学船舶与动力学院,湖北武汉430033 [2]海军某部队装备部,山东青岛266405

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2010年第11期39-42,共4页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：总装武器装备预研基金项目(9140A27050106JB11)

摘　　要：针对船用锅炉主过热蒸汽管路破损展开分析,建立故障树模型,同时充分考虑故障之间不确定性逻辑关系,在此基础上转化得到贝叶斯网络模型。通过对条件概率的合理修正,对故障进行安全性预测推理,得出比传统分析方法更为精确合理的计算结果。Taking the dilapidation of the main steam-gas pipelines of ship boiler as analysis object,this paper built the fault tree model,then turned it into Bayesian networks,fully considering uncertainties among the faults.Through carrying out of the security forecast reasoning of the faults,this paper got a result based on the modification of the conditional probability,which is more accurate than traditional analysis.

关 键 词：主过热蒸汽管路 贝叶斯网络 安全性定量分析 预测推理 

分 类 号：TK229-7[动力工程及工程热物理—动力机械及工程]