基于NDVI的天津市滨海新区植被覆盖度变化及预测研究  

Analysis and Prediction of Vegetation Coverage Dynamic Change Based on NDVI in Tianjin Binhai New Area

作　　者：徐大勇[1] 张涛[1] 孙贻超[1] 邓小文[1] 周滨[1] 卢学强[1] 邵晓龙[1] 张良运[1] 陈红[1] 袁雪竹[1] 白明英[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市环境保护科学研究院,天津300191 [2]太原师范学院城市与旅游学院,山西太原030012

出　　处：《生态经济》2010年第12期45-50,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2008ZX07314-005;2009ZX07314-010-01);全球环境基金GEF项目(TJSHZ810)

摘　　要：为了定量分析天津市滨海新区自1984～2008年24年间的植被覆盖的变化情况,研究选用归一化植被指数(NDVI)和植被覆盖度模型,以Landsat卫星遥感数据以及滨海新区1:50 000地形图作为数据基础,生成了滨海新区24年间三期的植被覆盖等级图,并运用土地转移矩阵模型,对滨海新区24年间植被覆盖变化情况进行了定量的分析。结果显示:滨海新区24年来,植被总体覆盖呈现出下降趋势,负向变化的主要驱动因素为人为因素。最后选用马尔可夫链模型,在假设外界干预因素相对稳定前提下,对滨海新区未来植被覆盖动态变化进行预测。结果显示:到2023年,若不进行人为干预,滨海新区植被覆盖将进一步恶化,区域物种多样性和生态安全将受到严重威胁。此研究对于滨海新区较长时间序列的植被覆盖变化分析以及区域内具有针对性的生态修复具有一定的指导意义。In order to analyze the changes in vegetation coverage in Binhai New Area quantitatively during 1984-2008,the authors generated vegetation cover class maps based on TM remote sensing data of Landsat and 1：50000 topographic maps with the use of normalization vegetation index（NDVI） and vegetation coverage model.Then the authors estimated vegetation cover changes in this area though land transition matrix model.The results showed that： Overall vegetation coverage in Binhai New Area has shown a downward trend mainly due to human factors.Finally,the authors selected Markov chain model to predict the future changes of vegetation coverage in Binhai New Area based on the assumption that external intervention factors are relatively stable.The results showed that： by 2023,vegetation of Binhai New Area will be further deteriorated and regional species diversity and ecological security will be seriously threatened without human intervention.This study has a significance for a long turn vegetation coverage change analysis in Binhai New Area and targeted ecological restoration.

关 键 词：滨海新区 NDVI指数 植被覆盖度模型 转移矩阵模型 马尔可夫链模 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]