基于系统动力学的区域林业经济发展战略仿真与调控研究  

Simulation and Regulation of Development Strategies of Regional Forestry Economy Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：兰宇飞[1] 薛惠锋[1] 董会忠[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学自动化学院 [2]山东理工大学管理学院

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第4期83-89,共7页Journal of Beijing Forestry University ：Social Sciences

摘　　要：如何合理开发利用林业资源,优化林业产业,发展现代林业经济,实现人与自然的和谐发展,是中国林业面临的基本问题。利用系统动力学的方法对区域林业经济进行建模、仿真与调控研究。以黑龙江省南岔区(局)林业经济系统为例,在分析系统结构的基础上,构建了林业经济系统SD模型,并且对总体模型进行历史检验与仿真分析。通过调整对经济可持续发展系统有重要影响的政策性参数,并利用其参数的不同组合,规划模拟南岔区(局)经济发展的多种模式。研究结果表明,结合模型中政策变量的可行性变动影响,当"政府林业科技投入占财政支出比例""林业企业科技投入占销售收入比例"和"投资比例",同时增加1%时,系统达到相对最优状态,更符合可持续发展的要求。最后根据结果提出了提升林业经济发展水平的可行的政策建议。How to exploit and use forest resources reasonably, optimize the forestry industry, develop modern forestry economy, and realize the harmonious development of man and nature are problems faced by China forestry industry. This paper studies on the modeling, simulation and regulation of regional forestry economy with methods of system dynamics. Taking the forestry economy system of Nanch＇a area in Heilongjiang province as an example, a system dynamics （SD） model is built, tested and analyzed based on structure analysis. Several models are stimulated by different groups of policy parameters which have important effect on the system of economy sustainable development. Results show that when proportion of fiscal expenditure on forestry science and technology, proportion of input of science and technology in sales income of enterprise, and investment ratio increase 1% simultaneously, the system would reach an optimal state, which matches the demand of sustainable development. Finally the authors put forward policy recommendations to enhance the development level of forestry economy. Key words：

关 键 词：系统动力学 模型 林业经济 表函数 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]