马尔可夫随机过程在化工设备事故预测中的应用  

MARKOV STOCASTIC PROCESS IN FAILURE EVENTS PREDICTION APPLICATIONS FOR PROCESS EQUIPMENT

作　　者：戴树和[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京化工大学机械工程系

出　　处：《南京化工大学学报》1999年第1期1-5,共5页Journal of Nanjing University of Chemical Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：化工设备事故预测技术，作为设备技术管理学科中的１项新兴技术，日益受到重视并蓬勃发展。在对化工设备事故进行预测时，由于事故发生引起的操作运行状态转移往往是随机过程，加之受人为因素影响，更增加了问题的复杂性。本文根据马尔可夫随机过程（Ｍａｒｋｏｖｓｔｏｃａｓｔｉｃｐｒｏｃｅｓｓ），提出了随机过程状态转移概率和寿命预测的方法，并考虑了人为因素的影响。工程应用案例表明，所提出的方法是有效的。The prediction of the occurrences of failure events for process equipment is a newly developing technology in the field of modern technical management of facilities. It is becoming increasingly important and is forging rapidly ahead. In prediction, the characteristics of transition of performance state of equipment due to the occurrences of failure events are often associated with stocastic process. If the influence of human factor has been considered, make the prediction technique more complicated. Based on Markov stocastic process, methodology of the prediction of life and probability of transition of performance state for process equipment dealing with the influence of human factor is proposed in the present work. Case studied in engineering practice shows that the technique proposed is available.

关 键 词：随机过程 马尔可夫 化工设备 技术管理 事故预测 

分 类 号：TQ086.2[化学工程]