我国二氧化碳排放的影响因素:基于省级面板数据的研究  

Impact Factors of China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions:Provincial Panel Data Analysis

作　　者：杜立民[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心

出　　处：《南方经济》2010年第11期20-33,共14页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金(项目编号:09YJC790167);中国博士后科学基金(项目编号:20090460751);"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目<西部大开发与区域经济发展理论创新>资助;浙江省社会科学界联合会研究课题成果

摘　　要：本文较为精确地估算了1995-2007年我国29个省的人均二氧化碳(CO2)排放量和排放总量,构建了省级CO2排放面板数据库,并分别在静态和动态面板数据模型框架下,考察了我国CO2排放的影响因素。研究结果显示,重工业比重、城市化水平和煤炭消费比重都对我国的CO2排放都具有显著正的影响;经济发展水平和人均CO2排放量之间则存在倒U型关系,环境库兹涅兹曲线假说成立;上一期人均CO2排放量的大小对本期的排放量具有显著正的影响。This paper estimates the quantity of CO2 emissions for 29 provinces of China covering the years from 1995 to 2007. Based on this provincial level panel data set, we try to analyze the main impact factors of China＇s CO2emissions under the frameworks of both static and dynamic panel data econometrics. The results show that industrial structure, ratio of urbanization and energy consumption structure have significant positive impact on China＇s CO2emissions. An inverted U-shaped relationship is found between economic development level and per capita CO2 emissions, and this means that the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve is verified in China. The results of dynamic model show that the CO2emissions of last period have positive impact on the emissions of current period.

关 键 词：二氧化碳排放 面板数据 动态模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]