利用防洪预报调度调整汛限水位的风险分析  

Risk Analysis on Flood Control Level Adjustment by Flood Control Forecast and Dispatching Mode

作　　者：张改红[1] 周惠成[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南城建学院,河南平顶山467044 [2]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《水力发电》2010年第1期26-28,82,共4页Water Power

摘　　要：通过分析洪水预报误差对调度风险的影响,建立了遭遇不同设计频率洪水时防洪预报调度的调洪结果超过原规划结果的风险率的计算方法,即通过确定超设计与不超设计风险误差域及其发生的概率,将遭遇洪水的发生概率与相应超设计风险误差域的发生概率相结合作为防洪预报调度调整汛限水位的超设计风险率。以白龟山水库为例计算遭遇频率5%、2%、1%和0.05%设计洪水的超设计风险率分别为0、0、0.001 4%和0,其结果介于相应的期望风险率超设计值和最大风险率超设计值之间,表明该方法合理可行。A risk rate calculation method of flood control is proposed after introducing the influence of flood forecast error.By determining the risk error margin and their probabilities of over-designed and designed flood control risk,and then comparing the probabilities of flooding and the relating probability of over-designed flood risk,the over-designed risk rate of flood control level adjustment by flood control forecast and dispatching mode can be determined.As a example,the overdesigned risk rate of Baiguishan Reservoir flood is 0,0,0.0014% and 0 for designed 5%,2%,1% and 0.05% flood respectively.The result is between the maximum and the expected over-designed risk rate,and shows that the method is feasible and reasonable.

关 键 词：防洪预报调度 汛限水位 洪水预报误差 风险 白龟山水库 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]