CDM造林再造林项目源汇估计的不确定性源及其估算方法  

Sources of Uncertainty and its Estimating Approach for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emission by Sources and Removals by Sinks from Afforestation and Reforestation under CDM

作　　者：武曙红[1] 宋维明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学自然保护区学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业科学》2010年第4期31-36,共6页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国清洁发展机制林业碳汇项目管理机制研究"(70640005);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划"林业生态建设关键技术研究与示范"项目

摘　　要：从CDM造林、再造林项目人为净温室气体汇清除量估算值不确定性源的产生过程、各种不确定性源的不确定性分析以及量化不确定性的方法等方面论述与人为净温室气体汇清除不确定性有关的问题,提出量化人为净温室气体汇清除不确定性的方法和建议,以期对CDM-AR项目开发商选择合适的方法学以及确定未来改进方法学准确性的优先努力方向提供帮助。Issues with regard to the uncertainty in estimating the net anthropogenic greenhouse gas removals by sink are discussed through analyzing the process that the sources of uncertainty generate in estimating the net anthropogenic greenhouse gas removals by sink and the uncertainty of the sources. The approaches and proposes for quantifying the uncertainty of sources and the uncertainty in estimating the net anthropogenic greenhouse gas removals by sink are put forward in this paper. We intend to provide help for investors in deciding prior efforts to improve the accuracy of approach in future and in choosing proper methodologies.

关 键 词：清洁发展机制(CDM) 造林和再造林 人为净温室气体汇清除 不确定性 

分 类 号：S718.554[农业科学—林学]