应用雷达拼图数据估测降水试验  

Application Experiment on Quantitative Rainfall Estimation with Radar Mosaic Data

作　　者：伍静[1,2,3] 刘黎平[2] 尤卫红[3] 崔哲虎[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区桂林市气象局,桂林541002 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]云南大学,昆明650091

出　　处：《气象科技》2010年第2期175-181,I0007,共8页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：973项目"我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究"(2004CB418305)资助

摘　　要：利用2008年6月5～7日广东省新一代天气雷达网(广州、梅州、韶关、阳江、深圳及汕头6部雷达)的雷达原始体扫资料及自动雨量站资料,对广东省3 km高度上的雷达网系统观测值差异进行了分析,发现广州雷达的观测值比周围雷达偏高1～3 dBz,梅州雷达比其周围雷达的观测值偏低1～2 dBz。用Z-R关系和最优插值校准法分别进行6 min和1 h估测降水,并用面雨量偏差和均方根误差对该次降水估测试验做了简单评估。结果显示:6 min定量估测降水,两种方法都会低估,面雨量越大,估测效果越好;对于1 h定量估测降水,各种估测方法都有偏高或偏低情况,但普遍偏高,其中用先累加再用最优插值校准法校准的雷达-雨量计联合估测方法效果最好;短时降水估测可以很好地反映降水过程变化,而长时间降水估测可以较准确估测降水大小。The radar and automatic precipitation station data of 5 to 7 June 2008 from the Guangdong provincial CINRAD network are used,an analysis is carried out of the observation differences of the radar networking system at 3 km over Guangdong Province,and it is discovered that observed values of Guangzhou radar,compared to nearby radar,are generally 1 to 3 dBz higher,and those of Meizhou radar are 1 to 2 dBz lower.With the Z-R relationship and the optimum interpolation calibrated method,6-minute and 1-hour quantitative rainfall estimations are conducted,and a verification is made using the basin average rainfall deviations and the root-mean-square errors on the estimation effect.It is concluded： in 6-minute precipitation estimation,two methods would underestimate precipitation,and the bigger the precipitation,the better the estimation effect is;in 1 hour precipitation estimation,the estimations of the two methods are generally higher,and the results of the radar-raingauge estimation method is best,in which progressive accumulation and then calibration are performed;the short-time precipitation estimation can reflect well the variation in precipitation processes,while the long-term precipitation estimations can estimate the amount of precipitation more accurately.

关 键 词：定量估测降水 最优插值法 Z-R关系 回波强度 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]