枣庄市紫外线辐射强度分析与分月预报方程  

Analysis of UV Radiation Intensity and Monthly Forcast Equations in Zaozhuang

作　　者：苑文华 张艳红 张立文 张玉洁 

机构地区：[1]山东省枣庄市气象局,山东枣庄277800 [2]山东省大气探测技术保障中心,山东济南250031

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第31期17617-17620,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：在分析2008～2009年枣庄地区紫外线辐射观测资料的基础上，得出紫外线辐射强度的变化特征：紫外线辐射夏季最强、冬季最弱；紫外线辐射强度日最大值出现在13：00前后；各季节紫外线辐射强度的日变化相似，正午呈大致对称分布。紫外线辐射强度与影响气溶胶光学厚度的大气浑浊度以及天气状况等因素有很好的相关。利用逐步回归方法推导得出枣庄紫外线强度每月预报方程，其平均复相关系数达0．9240。经实际观测资料试报验证，表明该方法对枣庄地区紫外线强度预报具有一定的准确度和实际的业务应用价值。Based on the analysis of the ultraviolet data in Zaozhuang,the variation features of its ultraviolet radiation intensity were obtained. Results indicated that the UV radiation intensity was the strongest in summer and the weakest in winter;the maximunl UV radiation intensity during a day appeared around 13：00; the diurnal variations of UV intensity in each seasons were similar, presenting a roughly symmetrical dis- tribution at noon. UV radiation intensity had obvious correlation with atmospheric turbidity and eeather conditions which Affect AOD. The stepwise regression method was adopted to deduce the monthly prediction equations of UV index in Zaozhuang, whose muhiple correlation coefficients reached 0. 924 0. The actual observation data verified that the stepwise regression method had certain accuracy and practical business application value in forecasting UV radiation index.

关 键 词：紫外线辐射强度 气溶胶光学厚度 预报方程 逐步回归 

分 类 号：P414.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]