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作 者:李江南[1]
出 处:《安徽农业科学》2010年第33期19042-19045,19205,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基 金:新疆社会科学基金项目(07JYB029)
摘 要:以耕地保护为目标层;耕地数量、耕地质量、可持续发展为准则层;耕地数量变化、人均耕地面积、复种指数、粮食总产量、粮食单产、人均粮食保障系数、单位机械动力投入量等为指标层,构建了一套多层次评价指标体系;并综合运用专家打分法和因子分析法确定了各指标的权重。将1996~2007年乌昌经济区的耕地面积、粮食产出、经济发展等数据标准化后,建立了乌昌经济区耕地集约利用总体评价模型,从综合耕地数量、耕地质量、可持续发展3方面分析了乌昌经济区耕地保护政策的总体实施效果。结果表明,乌昌经济区的耕地保护实施效果总体来说不断向好的方向发展,但在2000~2003年存在一定的波动性,2004年至今处于稳步上升阶段,2007年为最大值0.779,1996年为最小值0.242,1996~2007年的平均得分为0.454;耕地保护工作从最早的严格控制耕地数量,然后关注耕地质量,再逐步过渡到耕地可持续利用上来。A multi-level evaluation index system is established with farmland protection as the target layer,farmland quantity,farmland quality and farmland sustainable development as the criterion layer.And the index layer includes the quantity change of farmland,per capita farmland area,multiple cropping index,total grain yield,unit grain yield,per capita grain security coefficient,and unit machinery dynamical input.Both expert evaluation method and factor analysis method are used to determine the weight of index.According to the data in farmland area,grain yield and economic development in Urumqi—Changji Economic Zone in the years 1996-2007,a comprehensive evaluation model of intensive farmland use in Urumqi—Changji Economic Zone is established after data standardization.The overall implementation effect of farmland protection policy is analyzed by integrating the farmland quantity,farmland quality and sustainable development.Result shows that implementation effect of farmland protection shows an upward trend in general in Urumqi—Changji Economic Zone in the years 1996-2007,with a fluctuation in the years 2000-2003 and a stable rising phase from 2004 till now.The maximum value is 0.779 in the year 2007;the minimum value is 0.242 in the year 1996;and the mean value in the years 1996-2007 is 0.454.Farmland protection at first strictly controls the farmland quantity,then pays attention to farmland quality,and finally focuses on the sustainable use of farmland.
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