可燃物含水率实时变化的预测模型  

Real-Time Prediction Model of Forest Fuel Moisture

作　　者：曲智林[1] 李昱烨[1] 闵盈盈[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2010年第6期66-67,71,共3页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(C200941)

摘　　要：通过微分方程理论推导,建立了可燃物含水率实时变化预测模型,并统计分析了单位时间内可燃物含水率改变量与前一时刻气温、相对湿度和风速的关系,以及模型中各影响因子的取值范围。结果表明:所建模型的精度达到98.0%,说明在温带针阔混交林区,3—4月份及多时无雨且温度在零度以上的情况下所建模型是适用的,能够较精确地预测可燃物含水率。Differential equations were used to establish a real-time prediction model of forest fuel moisture. The relationships between change in moisture content per unit time and temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed of the previous time period were analyzed,and the ranges of values for influence factors in the model were obtained. The established model had an average precision of 98. 0% ,which means that it could be used to predict the moisture content of forest fuels in MarchApril or at temperatures above zero degrees C without precipitation for a long time in coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest in temperate region.

关 键 词：可燃物 含水率 预测模型 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]