我国地方政府发债现状及风险评估  

Status of Bond Financing of Local Government and the Risk Evaluation

作　　者：李湛[1] 曹萍[2] 曹昕[2] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学产业经济研究院,广东广州510632 [2]广东金融学院,广东广州510521

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2010年第12期25-31,共7页Securities Market Herald

基　　金：国家自科基金(70602033);广东省社科基金"企业债券市场监管分权竞争和集权整合的选择研究"的资助

摘　　要：近年我国地方政府发债规模迅速扩大,政府担保的地方融资平台发行了企业债,短期融资券和中期票据,其偿付风险受到关注,地方政府发债正面临治理和调整。本文对各省的债券规模和结构进行了统计,分析了省、地区和县级政府发债的格局,最后按各地政府未到期债券偿付能力评估其债务风险发现:高负债的中西部省份的县级市或地级市城投债,没有稳定的财政收入,过分依赖土地收入,接近于投机级债券,存在一定的偿债风险。Recently,the size of local government bonds expands rapidly and the new types of bond emerge.Investment bonds for urban construction include enterprise bonds,short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes.The risk of bond repayment is concerned;therefore the local government bonds are facing administration and adjustment.Firstly,the paper reviews the types of local government bonds,the issue size and structure of local government bonds,and their development stage.Secondly,we analyze the pattern of all levels of government bonds,including that of province governments,regional governments and county ones.Finally,based on the solvency of the outstanding bonds to assess the their debt risks,we find that counties or prefecture-level cities in the central and western provinces with high debt,if they meanwhile have no stable financial incomes and over rely on land revenues,their bonds are close to the speculative-grade bonds and there is a certain risk of debt.

关 键 词：城投债 地方政府债 债券市场 市政债券 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]