RiskScore管道风险评价方法与应用  

RiskScore Pipeline Risk Assessment and Its Application

作　　者：戴联双[1] 张俊义[2] 张鑫[3] 张华兵[1] 项小强[1] 曹涛[1] 冯庆善[1] 郑洪龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油管道科技研究中心 [2]中国石油管道公司 [3]中国石油天然气管道局国内事业部

出　　处：《油气储运》2010年第11期818-820,共3页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：基于肯特评分法建立了RiskScore管道风险评分系统,该系统可根据对象管道的实际情况确定影响管道失效的指标和权重,并在此基础上进行管道风险评价,对管道企业运营管理中的风险进行量化描述,为管道运营管理决策提供支持。RiskScore管道风险评价指标包括:第三方破坏指标、腐蚀指标、设计指标、误操作指标和管道泄漏影响指标。利用RiskScore管道风险评价方法分析了我国东北某原油管道的失效可能性和风险值,认为该管道的失效可能性较高,大量管段处于中等风险水平。Based on the most widespread pipeline risk assessment method W.Kent Muhlbauer scoring method.RiskScore pipeline risk scoring system is established,by which pipeline risk assessment can be performed with the system indicators and weights flexibly determined according to the actual pipeline failure.The risk assessment using RiskScore shows that the quantitative description on the pipeline risk under current operation condition can provide stronger support in decision-making of risk management.RiskScore indicators of pipeline risk assessment are consisted of the third party damage,corrosion index,design index,maloperation index and influence of pipeline leakage.The failure probability and risk value of some oil pipeline in Northeast Oil Pipeline Networks is analyzed by the RiskScore pipeline risk assessment method.The results show that there is higher failure probability in the pipeline and a number of pipeline sections in it are in the middle-level risk range.

关 键 词：油气管道 RiskScore 管道风险评价 评分系统 肯特评分法 风险模型 

分 类 号：TE988.2[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]