广西气温气候变化特征研究  

Study on Temperature Variation Characteristics in Guangxi

作　　者：覃卫坚[1] 李耀先 覃志年[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西气候中心,广西南宁530022 [2]广西气象学会,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第32期18315-18318,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：广西科学基金资助项目(桂科青0991060);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-03)共同资助

摘　　要：使用1951~2008年广西80个气象观测站的气温观测资料,利用蒙特卡罗方法分析广西气候变暖的特征。结果表明,广西年平均气温变暖趋势最显著,其次为秋季和夏季气温,最不显著的是春季气温;增温最大的是冬季和秋季。年平均气温50年平均增高0.6℃,趋势很显著。春季和夏季气温50年平均增高均为0.4℃,春季趋势不显著,而夏季趋势显著。秋季和冬季气温50年平均增高分别为0.8和1.0℃,2个季节大部分地区趋势均显著。高温日数变化除了全州、忻城等少数地区有减少趋势外,其余地区均有增多的趋势,但趋势不显著,高温日数50年平均增多了2.8 d。Base on the temperature data of 80 stations in Guangxi during 1951-2008,the climate warming characteristics of Guangxi province was analyzed by the method of Monte Carlo.Results showed that increasing trends of annual mean temperature in Guangxi were the most significant,the biggest increase happened in winter and autumn,followed by summer and spring.The annual average temperature increased by an average of 0.6℃ in 50 years with a significant increasing trend.The temperature in spring and summer increased by an average of 0.4℃ in 50 years,the increasing trend was insignificant in spring while significant in summer.The temperature in autumn and winter increased by 0.8 and 1.0℃ respectively in 50 years,the temperature increase trends of most regions in both seasons were significant.The days with high temperature showed an increasing trend in most places except in Quanzhou,Yicheng and few other regions,but the trend was not significant,there was an average of 2.8 more days with high temperature.

关 键 词：广西 气温 气候趋势 蒙特卡罗方法 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]