基于主成分分析法的大坝风险后果综合评价模型  

Comprehensive Model for Assessing Hazard Consequences Caused by Dam Failure Based on Principal Component Analysis

作　　者：孙玮玮[1] 李雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院大坝安全与管理研究所,南京210029

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2010年第12期22-26,共5页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金："十一五国家科技支撑计划课题"水库大坝安全保障技术研究(2006BAC14B07)

摘　　要：大坝风险后果综合评价涉及众多评价因子,各因子间存在一定的相关性。将主成分分析理论应用于大坝风险后果的综合评价,以江西5座水库为例,将数据标准化,根据相关系数矩阵,以综合因子的贡献率确定主成分和权重,计算出主成分值以及综合分值,结合评价标准最终确定大坝风险后果等级并对其进行排序。结果表明:若发生溃坝事件,5座水库大坝后果均十分严重,属特别重大事故,评价结果客观合理。研究表明,主成分分析法能够较客观地反映大坝风险程度,具有方法简便、推理过程严密等特点,为大坝风险后果综合评价提供一条新途径。The paper aims at introducing a renovated hazard assessment model for the consequences caused by the dam failure based on principal component analysis.Since such dam failure hazard assessment involves a lot of influence factor characteristics of correlation,it is of essential necessity to evade subjective factors as much as possible.In this way,the principal component analysis is expected to make the complexity related factors visualized.As a case study,the paper tried using this model to evaluate the consequences of dam hazard of five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province.With standardized data,and by calculating the correlation coefficient matrix,the main compositions and weights based on the contribution of an integrated factor can be determined,the principal component values and comprehensive scores gotten,and in combination with the risk evaluation criteria,the consequences of the dam level and sequence finalized.The results of our analysis show that the consequences of the failure of the above-mentioned five reservoirs are all serious which belong to the special events of the dam-breaks.Thus the application of the model shows that principal component analysis can reflect the dam hazard level more objectively with its application being simple and ratiocination close.Therefore,it can be considered as a promising method with great potential for future development.

关 键 词：水利水电工程 大坝风险后果 综合评价 主成分分析法 模型 

分 类 号：TV64[水利工程—水利水电工程]