公益服务类事业单位养老保险基金收支预测与政策仿真——基于养老保险制度参数的优化设计  

The Forecasting and Policy Simulation of Endowment Insurance Fund Revenue and Expenditure in Public Services Institution——Based on the Optimization of Endowment Insurance System Parameters

作　　者：封铁英[1] 戴超[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第11期73-87,共15页China Soft Science

基　　金：2009年国家社会科学基金重大项目(09&ZD057);2009年教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09XJC840001);2009年教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划(IRT0855)

摘　　要：面对人口老龄化进程加剧和事业单位养老保险基金缺口扩大的双重压力,国家开始实施事业单位养老保险制度改革试点方案,以减轻财政负担,促进社会养老保险体系的逐步完善。本文以公益服务类事业单位为对象,以现行制度和政策规定为依据,科学划分"新人"、"新中人"、"老中人"和"老人"四类群体,分行业构建公益服务类事业单位养老保险基金收支预测模型,选取西安市为例对模型进行应用。基于制度参数优化设计的政策仿真结果表明,公益服务类事业单位养老保险收支呈现刚性增长趋势,在老龄化高峰到来时出现缺口且逐步扩大。以参数调整对比分析为基础,从加快事业单位人事和工资制度改革、建立多支柱的养老保险体系、适时提高法定退休年龄、稳定缴费比例和降低养老金过度系数等方面提出实现公益类事业养老保险制度可持续发展的对策建议。Faced with the double pressure of the rapid population aging and magnified Institution Endowment Insurance Fund gap,for reducing the burden of the national finance and improving the social pension system,Institution Endowment Insurance System began to emerge in China.Based on current system and policy regulations,according to ＂young workers＂,＂young middle-aged workers＂,＂old middle-aged workers＂ and ＂old workers＂,the paper takes Public Services Institution as a research object,and constructs a forecasting model of endowment insurance fund revenue and expenditure of Public Services Institution in different industries,then chooses Xi＇an as an applied model.The policy simulation results of system parameters optimization show that Public Services Institution Endowment Insurance Fund revenue and expenditure are rigidly increasing.The Fund would begin to appear gap and to be enlarged gradually when the aging peak is coming.Based on comparative analysis on the adjustable parameters,the paper puts forwards some suggestions：improving the reform of institution personnel system and salary system,establishing the multi-support endowment insurance system,increasing retirement-age of working-aged population timely,keeping the proportion of individual＇s pay invariant and reducing pension transfer coefficient in order to develop the Public Services Institution Endowment Insurance System sustainably.

关 键 词：公益服务类事业单位 养老保险制度 基金收支预测 政策仿真 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]