突发事件决策情景与知识供给研究  

Research on the Decision-making Scenarios and Knowledge Supply in Emergencies

作　　者：何力[1] 卢冰原[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京工程学院经济管理学院,江苏南京211167

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2010年第12期105-108,共4页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：南京工程学院科研基金项目(项目编号:YKJ200903);江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金项目(项目编号:09SJD630036)的研究成果之一

摘　　要：针对大中城市多已建立应急指挥中心,非常规突发事件集成处理能力弱这一情况,文章建立基于情景预判的突发事件决策模型,提出不同情景及其附着问题决定不同的决策主体和决策模式,进而决定了知识供给匹配的机制。以此理论为基础构建了多知识库和突发事件情景与知识供给过程模型并给出案例解析,从而为突发事件综合态势研判前置提供理论支持。In view of the fact that most big and medium-sized cities have established emergency command centers,and the integrated ability to deal with unconventional emergencies is still low,this article constructs an emergency decision-making model based on scenario prediction,and points out that different scenarios and affiliated problems determine different decision-making and models,which further determines the knowledge supply mechanism.Based on this theory,the article constructs a multi-knowledge base and a model of emergency scenario and knowledge supply process,and gives a case analysis,thus providing a theoretical support for predicting the general emergency situation.

关 键 词：突发事件 决策情景 决策模型 知识供给 

分 类 号：D632[政治法律—政治学]