基于风险相关性和随机性的工序工期预测模型  

Forecasting Model of Activity Duration Based on Correlation and Randomness of Risk

作　　者：李军辉[1] 张云波[1] 祁神军[1] 王庆涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建泉州362021

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2010年第6期1018-1021,共4页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(E9910026)

摘　　要：针对计划评审技术(PERT)只考虑工程项目工期的不确定性而未考虑工期风险因素间相关性的问题,讨论了风险因素的随机性和风险因素间的相关性,采用随机数仿真工程项目工期风险,提出了一种新的工序工期预测模型,并用工程实例论证模型的有效性。结果表明,采用风险相关系数矩阵和风险随机数对工程项目工序工期的仿真模拟,充分考虑了影响工序工期风险因素的随机性及相关性,符合实际工期控制的要求。与PERT模型相比,该模型预测误差较小,精度更高。There are lots of uncertain factors affecting the construction period.Although the PERT considered the uncertainties of construction period,the inter-correlation among construction period risk factors were not considered.A new forecasting model was proposed for activity duration when randomness of risk factors and the inter-correlation among them were considered.And risk of construction activity duration was simulated with random numbers.An engineering case was studied to verify the validity of the proposed model.The results showed that this model,which applied risk correlation coefficient matrix and random numbers to simulate activity duration,fully considered the randomness of activity duration risk factors and the inter-correlation among them,and was suitable for the actual construction period controlling.Compared with PERT model,this model had less prediction error and higher accuracy.

关 键 词：工序工期 相关性 随机数 风险因素 工期预测 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济] F224