基于重要抽样的强弱链安全系统失效概率计算  

Calculation of Failure Probability of Strong and Weak Link Safety System Based on Importance Sampling

作　　者：锁斌[1] 程永生[1] 曾超[1] 李军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国工程物理研究院电子工程研究所,四川绵阳621900

出　　处：《探测与控制学报》2010年第5期20-24,共5页Journal of Detection & Control

基　　金："十一五"国防重点预研项目资助(426010501)

摘　　要：针对火烧事故中、温度冲击下强弱链安全系统的失效概率计算中,传统的蒙特卡洛方法存在抽样效率低、收敛较慢的缺点,将改进的蒙特卡洛方法———重要抽样方法引入到失效概率的计算中,以失效域中的设计点为均值、方差不变构造了重要抽样概率密度函数,给出了相对误差的计算方法,并结合一个实例进行了数值仿真。仿真表明,与传统的蒙特卡洛方法相比,重要抽样方法效率更高、误差更小。Calculation of failure probability of strong and weak link safety system in fire and temterature shock is of low sampling efficiency and slow converging when using troditional Monte Carlo method.The importance sampling method was introduced to evaluate the failure probability.The failure probability formula that concerned with average desighing points in failure field and unchanging deviation was built and the culculation of relative erroer was given.The illustration with numerical simulation and error analysis showed that the importance sampling method was superior to traditional Monte Carlo method in sample size and errors.

关 键 词：安全系统 失效概率 强弱链 温度冲击 重要抽样 

分 类 号：TJ430.33[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]