基于模糊层次分析法的中国水能开发利用潜力评价  

Potentiality Evaluation of China Water Power Resources Development and Utilization Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：沈时兴[1] 刘航[2] 金菊良[2] 周玉良[2] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学学生工作处,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第12期151-153,159,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70941032);合肥工业大学科学研究发展基金资助项目(2010HGXJ0132)

摘　　要：以31个省级行政区为例,根据水能开发利用对象与条件的协调性,采用乘法加权综合评价方法,构建了基于模糊层次分析法的中国水能开发利用潜力评价模型。应用结果表明,该方法可对水能开发利用潜力进行整体宏观定量评价和分类排序,并可得出水能蕴藏量和环境、地形、经济条件是影响水能开发利用潜力的重要因素,对合理评价水能开发利用潜力及制定水能开发利用战略、发展低碳经济、继续深入实施西部大开发战略和可持续发展具有重要意义。Taking 31 provincial administrative regions of China for an example,according to the compatibility of object and condition of water power resources development and utilization,a potentiality evaluation model of China water power resources development and utilization based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is established by using the comprehensive evaluation method of the weighted multiplication.The application results show that the model can be used to carry out macro quantitative assessment,classification and sorting of water power resources development and utilization potentialities of the provincial administrative regions in China,and that the importance sorting of the influencing factors of water power resources development and utilization is water power resources reserve,environmental condition,topographical condition and economic condition respectively.The above results are very important for reasonable evaluating of water power resources development and utilization potentiality,formulating the water power resources development and utilization strategy,developing the low carbon economy,and continuing to thoroughly implement the western development strategy and national sustainable development of China.

关 键 词：省级行政区 水能开发利用 潜力评价 模糊层次分析法 西部大开发 可持续发展 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F224[经济管理—国民经济]