城镇用地扩张的弹性规划控制研究——以安徽省滁州市南谯区为例  

Flexible Planning Regulation of Urban Land Expansion:Study of Nanqiao District,Chuzhou City

作　　者：彭佳雯[1] 黄贤金[1] 张兴榆[1] 王锐[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093 [2]滁州市国土资源局南谯分局,安徽滁州239000

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2010年第6期29-36,共8页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项--土地利用规划的碳排放效应与调控研究(200811033);江苏省国土资源科技项目土地开发度测算方法评价与差别化土地配置研究(2009005);城乡统筹的农村集体建设用地利用政策研究(2009021)

摘　　要：采用双因素预测模型、主成分聚类分析法、建设用地生态适宜性评价等方法,研究城镇用地扩张的规模和空间布局规划控制,以探讨具备适度弹性的城镇用地扩张规划控制的内容及模式。基于扩张经济和人口增长驱动双因素,运用GDP、非农人口弹性预测及单位用地GDP、单位用地非农人口控制构建扩张规模弹性方案预测模型;考虑经济社会发展和节约集约控制需求,选取扩张弹性控制等级分区指标,划分由相对扩张到相对收缩、有弹性到无弹性的分级弹性控制区,结合建设生态适宜性评价结果,识别城镇空间有序发展方向。结果表明:弹性控制方案下南谯区2010、2015、2020年建设用地扩张规模弹性度分别为5.81%、7.25%、8.34%,并将其划分为四级扩张弹性控制区,东南方向为扩张有序方向。The purpose of the paper is to discuss the content and patterns of flexible planning regulation of urban land expansion, by using methods of two-factor prediction model, principal component and cluster analysis, ecological suitability evaluation on construction land so as to explore the expansion scale and spatial distribution planning regulation of land expansion. Based on the driving factors, the prediction model of flexible schemes of urban land scale was established through flexible forecasting of GDP and nonagricultural population growth and intensive controlling of GDP and nonagricultural population per construction land. Considering the need of development and regulation, this paper selects indices of expansion regionalization based on flexible regulation levels and determines the regionalization results, which are characterized from comparatively expanding to comparatively contracting, and from flexible regulation to rigid control, identifying orderly development of urban space according to the result of construction ecological suitability evaluation. The results indicate that under the flexible regulation schemes, the flexibility degree of construction land expansion scale of Nanqiao District in 2010,2015 and 2020 would be 5. 18%, 7. 25%, 8.34%. The district is divided into four-level flexible regulation zones,with the southeast as the smart expanding direction.

关 键 词：城镇用地扩张 弹性规划控制 双因素预测模型 建设生态适宜性 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] F301.253