川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川M_W 7.9级地震孕震过程分析  

A prediction of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysis of the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan M_W7.9 earthquake

作　　者：秦四清[1] 薛雷[1] 徐锡伟[2] 黄鑫[1] 王媛媛[1] 泮晓华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学报》2010年第11期2639-2650,共12页Chinese Journal of Geophysics

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-113和KZCX2-YW-Q03-02113);国家自然科学基金委重点项目(41030750)资助

摘　　要：根据作者提出的孕震时空区域划分原则,确定了川滇地区地震区(带)划分的合理方案.运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,给出了各地震区(带)未来强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明,除西昌、丽江与鲜水河地震区在较长一段时间内无破坏性地震发生外,其他地震区都将有破坏性地震发生.本文还分析了汶川大地震的孕震过程.结果表明:导致2008年5月12日汶川M_w7.9级地震的最直接原因,是1976年发生在松潘—平武的M_s7.2级双震震群事件.According to the division principle of seismogenic time and space scale presented by us, a rational division scheme of seismic zones or belts in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions, China, is determined. Furthermore, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for each seismic zone or belt, are obtained using the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system. It is shown that destructive earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones mentioned below other than Xichang, Lijiang and Xianshuihe seismic zones. Furthermore, the seismogenic process associated with the Wenchuan earthquake is analyzed. It is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Wenchuan earthquake occurred on 12 May, 2008 is attributed to the double earthquake swarm events with a magnitude of Ms7. 2 occurred in Songpan-Pingwu in 1976.

关 键 词：川滇地区 地震区 锁固段 汶川地震 预测力法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]