中国新企业年金替代率测算及其敏感性分析  

Measurement of New Chinese Enterprise Pension Replacement Ratio and It's Sensitivity Analysis

作　　者：谢杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [2]浙江工商大学经济学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《西北人口》2010年第6期93-98,102,共7页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70573067)阶段性成果;浙江省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地(金融学)基地课题"企业年金的资产负债管理与投资风险研究"(JYTjr20101205);浙江工商大学产业经济学浙江省重点学科项目"中非农业贸易与投资合作研究"(3010GF13090103)的资助

摘　　要：企业年金在多支柱养老保险体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。企业年金替代率是企业养老保险的一个重要指标。本文构建了一个测算企业年金替代率的现金流平衡模型。基于现金流平衡模型,我们对影响企业年金替代率的诸因素进行了敏感性分析。不同于大多数的以往研究方法,我们应用三状态Markov转换模型分析了年金基金投资收益率的长期走势。研究表明,逐步延长退休年龄或提供投资收益可以提高企业年金替代率。因此,应通过实施弹性退休制,改善企业年金资产的投资环境,实施更多的税收优惠政策,以及其他配套措施,以促进我国企业年金的可持续发展。The enterprise pensions are playing a more and more important role in the system of multi-pillar endowment insurance.The replacement ratio of enterprise pension is an important indicator of the enterprise endowment insurance.This paper establishes a cash flow equivalent model for the measurement of enterprise pension replacement ratio.We analyses the sensitivity of the factors which influence the replacement ratio of enterprise pension,which is based on the cash flow equivalent model model.Unlike most of the previous research methods,we analyzed the long-run trend of pension fund investment yield rate based on Three-State Markov-Switching Model.The research indicates that gradually postponing the retirement age and improving investment yield can enhance the replacement ratio of enterprise pension.Therefore,it is necessary to implement flexible retirement system,improve the investment environment of enterprise pensions property,adopt more tax preference policies,and other supporting measures for promoting the sustainable development of enterprise pensions.

关 键 词：企业年金 替代率 期限结构 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]