山东省科技发展系统动力学模拟  

System dynamic simulation of Shandong science and technology development index

作　　者：李新运[1] 唐保国[1] 任栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东经济学院信息管理学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《科技与管理》2010年第6期20-24,共5页Science-Technology and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划课题(09YJA630087)

摘　　要：根据编制"十二五"科技发展规划的需要,建立了山东省科技发展系统动力学模拟模型。该模型包括科技投入、科技产出和经济发展3个子系统。根据山东省近30年来的统计数据和国民经济宏观发展目标拟定了模型中的参数,采用Vensim软件模拟了山东省科技发展主要指标的变化趋势,得到了高、中、低3套方案,为山东省"十二五"科技发展规划的编制提供了基础依据,对其他地区也具有参考价值。According to the establishmends of the 12^th Five-Year science and technology development plan,this paper builds a system dynamic model of Shandong technology development system. This model includes three subsystems： science and technology input, science and technology output and economy development. The model parameters are determined according to the statistical data in recent 30 years and national economic development goals, and the trend of main indicators in the model is simulated by using Vensim. Finally, we obtain 3 strategies high, medium, and low as foundations of the 12^th Five-Year science and technology development plan, offering reference for other areas.

关 键 词：科技发展 预测 动力学模拟 

分 类 号：C304[社会学]